Overview

Iran's strategic doctrine treats its network of allied militias and political movements -- often called the "Axis of Resistance" -- as a forward defense perimeter and a retaliatory deterrent. When Iran faces direct military strikes, the question is not whether proxies will respond but which ones, how quickly, and at what intensity. Each proxy operates on a different timeline, with different capabilities, and under different levels of Iranian command and control, making the escalation picture far more complex than a single bilateral conflict.

This article maps the four primary proxy escalation routes: Hezbollah's northern front against Israel from Lebanon, Houthi maritime disruption in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Iraqi PMF militia attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, and potential activation of smaller Iranian-linked cells in Syria, Bahrain, and elsewhere. For each route, we examine the proxy's military capabilities, its historical pattern of activation during Iran-related crises, the degree of command and control Tehran exercises, and the specific escalation triggers that would move each group from baseline activity to full mobilization.

The analysis is grounded in documented behavior from previous escalation cycles: the 2006 Lebanon War, the post-Soleimani period in January 2020, and the October 2023-present multi-front activity that demonstrated simultaneous proxy operations across all four theaters for the first time.

What We Know

As of February 28, 2026, coverage on iran proxy escalation routes should prioritize primary documentation and high-credibility reporting. This section focuses on confirmed information and labels uncertainty directly.

Analysis

Hezbollah: the northern front (highest capability, highest stakes)

Hezbollah is Iran's most capable and best-equipped proxy, with an estimated arsenal of 130,000-150,000 rockets and missiles ranging from short-range Katyusha-type rockets to precision-guided Fateh-110 variants capable of striking specific buildings in Tel Aviv. Since the 2006 war, Hezbollah has built fortified tunnel networks in southern Lebanon, acquired anti-tank guided missiles, and reportedly received GPS-guided munitions that transform its rocket force from an area-denial weapon into a precision strike capability. Hezbollah's activation timeline in response to strikes on Iran depends on the severity: limited strikes may produce rhetorical solidarity without kinetic response (as occurred after the January 2020 Soleimani assassination), while large-scale attacks on Iranian population centers or nuclear sites would likely trigger sustained rocket and missile barrages across the northern Israeli border. A full Hezbollah activation would force Israel into a two-front war and could overwhelm Iron Dome capacity through sheer volume.

Houthis: Red Sea maritime disruption (active, independently escalating)

The Houthis in Yemen have demonstrated a capability that few analysts anticipated before late 2023: the ability to disrupt global shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden using anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and explosive-laden drone boats. Since November 2023, Houthi attacks have forced major container lines (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and significant fuel costs to Europe-Asia trade routes. Iran supplies the Houthis with missile components, drone technology, and targeting intelligence, but the Houthis have shown willingness to escalate independently of direct Iranian orders. In a scenario where Iran is under sustained attack, the Houthis could intensify strikes to include Saudi oil infrastructure (as they did with the 2019 Abqaiq attack) and expand targeting to include US naval vessels in the region, raising the risk of a broader US-Yemen military confrontation.

Iraqi PMF militias: the nearest threat to US forces

Iranian-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces factions -- particularly Kata'ib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq -- operate within kilometers of US military installations in Iraq and northeastern Syria. These groups have launched over 150 rocket, mortar, and one-way attack drone strikes against US facilities since October 2023, including the January 2024 attack on Tower 22 in Jordan that killed three US service members. The PMF escalation route is the fastest to activate because these militias maintain standing capability near their targets and require minimal logistical preparation. In the event of US strikes on Iran, PMF attacks on US forces in Iraq would likely intensify within hours, creating immediate American casualties and forcing a decision about whether to expand military operations into Iraq -- a scenario with enormous political and strategic complications given Iraq's sovereignty and the US-Iraq bilateral relationship.

What's Next

Proxy escalation follows observable patterns. The following indicators signal whether the conflict is expanding into a multi-front regional war or remaining contained.

Why It Matters

Iran's proxy network transforms a bilateral US/Israel-Iran conflict into a potential regional war spanning five countries. This is the fundamental strategic reality that makes escalation with Iran qualitatively different from other military operations. Strikes on Iran do not only produce Iranian retaliation -- they can activate armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen that collectively possess hundreds of thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones, operate near US forces and allied civilian populations, and have demonstrated willingness to use them.

The proxy escalation risk is not theoretical. The October 2023-present period demonstrated for the first time that all four proxy fronts can operate simultaneously: Hezbollah exchanged daily fire with Israel across the Lebanese border, Houthis attacked Red Sea shipping, and Iraqi PMF militias struck US facilities -- all in response to the Gaza conflict, which did not even involve direct strikes on Iranian territory. Strikes on Iran itself would represent a far greater provocation and could produce a correspondingly greater proxy response.

For civilian populations across the region, the proxy escalation map defines who is at risk and from what direction. Northern Israeli communities face Hezbollah rockets. US service members in Iraq and Syria face PMF drones and rockets. Global shipping faces Houthi missiles in the Red Sea. Gulf state oil infrastructure faces both direct Iranian and Houthi attack. Understanding these escalation routes is essential for anyone trying to assess the true cost and risk of military action against Iran, which extends far beyond the targets struck on Iranian soil.

Sources

  1. CSIS Missile Threat. missilethreat.csis.org/
  2. SIPRI military spending release. www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military-expenditure-european-and-middle-east-spending-surges
  3. AP live updates (Feb 28, 2026). apnews.com/article/8de8054f3abd4688f894c657467ee3dd
  4. AP: US and Israel launch attack. apnews.com/article/c2f11247d8a66e36929266f2c557a54c
  5. MARAD alert 2025-003A. www.maritime.dot.gov/msci/2025-003a-arabian-gulf-strait-hormuz-gulf-oman-and-arabian-sea-retaliatory-strikes-iranian

Last updated: February 28, 2026. This article is revised when new evidence materially changes what can be stated with confidence.