In-depth dispatches, expert analysis, and source-cited reporting from the Iran conflict
TRENDING
The Selective Service system, the 193-day activation timeline, why the military's 1.3M active force makes a draft operationally unnecessary, and how to separate legal reality from social media panic.
TRENDING
Three gas price scenarios based on escalation level — from $3.80-4.20 (contained) to $5.50-6.50 (Hormuz closure). How Strait chokepoint risk, refinery crack spreads, and insurance premiums flow to the pump.
NEW
Seven decades of US-Iran tension mapped — from Operation TPAJAX and the Islamic Revolution through the hostage crisis, Iran-Iraq War, JCPOA rise and collapse, and the February 2026 military strikes.
NEW
Country-by-country allied positioning — UK's qualified support, France's understanding without participation, Germany's opposition, Turkey's Article 4 invocation, and the Russia-China UNSC condemnation bloc.
NEW
Divergent casualty figures, ICRC hospital surge reports, 120K-180K internally displaced, and infrastructure damage multipliers — how the humanitarian situation is developing across western Iran.
NEW
How Iran's government actually works — the Supreme Leader's constitutional authority, the IRGC's parallel state controlling 20-40% of GDP, the Guardian Council's vetting power, and how war decisions are really made.
NEW
GCC state-by-state positioning — Qatar's Al Udeid contradiction, Saudi Arabia's Beijing Agreement balancing act, Bahrain's Fifth Fleet dependency, and the proxy spillover risks across 20M bpd of collective oil production.
NEW
Facility-by-facility satellite damage analysis — Natanz above-ground halls destroyed, Fordow's 80m granite overburden likely intact, Isfahan UCF severely damaged. GBU-57 penetration physics and radiological monitoring status.
BREAKING
Iran fired ballistic missiles at four US military installations across Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain — the most significant direct attack on US forces since the 2020 Ain al-Asad strike. Base-by-base damage assessment and missile defense response.
TRENDING
With WW3 searches spiking 2000%, this evidence-based analysis examines four escalation scenarios — from regional containment to great power involvement — with assessed probability and historical precedents for each.
NEW
In-depth analysis of Iran's response to US strikes — from the Al Udeid missile attack to Strait of Hormuz threats, cyber operations, and the escalating 2025-2026 crisis.
NEW
Minute-by-minute breakdown of what US and Israeli officials have confirmed about tonight's strikes on Iran, including targets hit, weapons used, and the Pentagon's stated objectives.
NEW
A chronological reconstruction of the Iran crisis from the June 2025 IAEA report through the February 2026 strikes, with key diplomatic failures, military buildups, and turning points mapped step by step.
NEW
Publicly available damage reports, satellite imagery analysis, and official statements on Operation Midnight Hammer — what was struck, what survived, and what the evidence does and doesn't confirm.
NEW
What IAEA inspectors can realistically verify after military strikes on nuclear facilities — the gap between monitoring capability and political access, and why it matters for post-conflict verification.
NEW
The legal framework for self-defense under international law — how Article 51 of the UN Charter applies to the Iran strikes, what constitutes an "armed attack," and the difference between preemptive and preventive force.
NEW
The 48-hour notification requirement, the 60-day withdrawal deadline, and what Congress can actually do to constrain or authorize continued military operations against Iran under the War Powers Resolution.
NEW
How the UN snapback mechanism works under Resolution 2231, what sanctions were reimposed after the JCPOA collapse, and why the October 2025 expiration changed the enforcement landscape for Iran.
NEW
A plain-language breakdown of NPT Articles II, III, IV, and X — what Iran agreed to, what it violated, and why the treaty's withdrawal clause is central to the current crisis.
UPDATE
Why the Additional Protocol grants IAEA inspectors access beyond declared nuclear sites, how Iran's suspension of compliance reduced verification confidence, and what that gap means after the strikes.
UPDATE
What 3.67%, 20%, and 60% enrichment levels actually mean in practice, how breakout time is calculated from centrifuge capacity and stockpile size, and where Iran stood before the strikes.
UPDATE
A facility-by-facility breakdown of Iran's three main nuclear sites — what each one does, which centrifuges and enrichment processes they house, and what targeting them means for Iran's nuclear capability.
UPDATE
How Strait of Hormuz chokepoint risk, OPEC supply disruption fears, and war-risk insurance premiums combined to drive Brent crude above $120/barrel within hours of the first strikes on Iran.
UPDATE
20% of global oil transits the Strait of Hormuz daily. This analysis maps what happens to shipping insurance, tanker routes, and LNG deliveries as Iran escalation scenarios unfold.
UPDATE
Which airlines have cancelled or rerouted flights, what NOTAMs and EASA conflict zone advisories say, and how airspace closures over Iran, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf affect global travel.
UPDATE
How Iran uses shell companies, flag-swapping, and AIS transponder manipulation to move 1.5 million barrels per day through a shadow tanker fleet — and how OFAC and Treasury enforcement tries to stop it.
UPDATE
FinCEN's published red-flag indicators for Iranian oil smuggling and sanctions evasion — the banking typologies, trade-based laundering patterns, and cryptocurrency methods that financial institutions are told to watch for.
UPDATE
CISA's warnings on Iran-linked cyber operations against US critical infrastructure — which sectors are most at risk, known threat actors (APT33, APT42), and the checklist organizations should follow during escalation.
UPDATE
Iran's ballistic missile arsenal mapped by range — from short-range Fateh-110 (300km) to medium-range Shahab-3 (1,300km) and the Khorramshahr MRBM (2,000km). Which countries and bases fall within each range ring.
UPDATE
How Patriot PAC-3, THAAD, Iron Dome, and Arrow-3 systems work together to form layered missile defense across the Middle East — their capabilities, blind spots, and performance against Iranian ballistic missiles.
UPDATE
The escalation pathways through Iran's proxy network — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Iraqi PMF militias, and Hamas. Which groups could open new fronts, and what their capabilities allow.
UPDATE
International humanitarian law obligations during urban military operations — the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution, and how they apply to airstrikes on Tehran and other populated areas.
UPDATE
UNHCR and IOM displacement projections for the Iran-Israel escalation — which populations are most vulnerable, where refugee flows are expected, and what humanitarian agencies are pre-positioning.
UPDATE
A step-by-step OSINT workflow for verifying Iran strike footage — reverse image search, geolocation techniques, metadata analysis, and how to spot manipulated or recycled conflict videos on social media.
UPDATE
Why initial casualty numbers in active conflicts are almost always wrong — the sourcing hierarchy, common manipulation tactics, and a practical framework for evaluating claims from all sides.
UPDATE
Four evidence-based scenarios for how the Iran conflict could develop over the next month — from ceasefire and negotiation to sustained bombardment and regional proxy war, with assessed probability for each.
NEW
The US and Israel launch strikes on Iran in a joint preemptive operation targeting Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and military installations.
NEW
A comprehensive breakdown of the nuclear program, failed negotiations, and preemptive strike rationale.
NEW
Expert analysis of enrichment capability, breakout timelines, IAEA findings, and verification limits.